cashforgold

An expert remembers the year, when the precious metal a little more cost than at present - and discovered many parallels

''There is something reminiscent of the January 1980'', said Hans Hagen. Then as now the price of gold shot up within a few trading days of nearly 800 to more than $ 850. Hagen was then Head of the precious metal trade of the Bavarian Raiffeisen-Zentralbank.

On Monday, 21 January, clock 15:29, he wrote in his book: buying 854, selling $ 862. That was the price per ounce of gold. Two minutes later, it was:''Fix''The 850th was the highest ever achieved significant brand for the London Fixing. Meanwhile the price of gold reached on that Monday is a record high at $ 870. Then it went rapidly downhill.

That could happen again today, says Hagen, with its 65 years, one of the few industry experts in Germany, was already in a responsible position in the precious metals business and it was partly as a consultant still is. How then, were again today many speculators in the market,''the morning in Hong Kong buy gold, in the hope that it at night in New York again to be able to sell more expensive''says Hagen. The Bull''feeds the bull, then as now, which carries the risk of a sudden correction.''

In fact, cost the ounce of gold at the end of last week nor less than $ 800 until Tuesday afternoon, the precious metal in the top with $ 845.40 traded. After profit taking resulted in the London afternoon fixing a price of $ 834.50. Analysts such as Robin BHAR by the Swiss UBS reckon firmly with a sharp downward correction''''once old records can be set.

Mirror image of the dollar
On Tuesday, there was only once a driving course Message: A high-level representatives of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of China criticized the huge foreign currency reserves of the country better but finally split. The capital market in the understood primarily as an announcement on the flight from the dollar. China is one of the largest creditors of the United States. Similarly strong sank the U.S. currency.
To 17.45 clock reached the euro against the dollar set a record value of $ 1.4655. Gold''is the exact mirror image of the euro-dollar''said Michael Klawitter, currency analyst at Dresdner Bank. The dollar is''as a global reserve currency-and trade is increasingly called into question''as Klawitter. Investors, especially the professionals put their money, therefore, preferred to''real''values, ie in commodities, especially precious metals. Adjusted the old peak of gold since the devaluation took place, Reuters calculated, should the gold price today at around 2200 dollars.

It has the value of the precious metal since the beginning of the U.S. mortgage crisis in the summer is already around one-third increase. At the three-year perspective, the gold prices have doubled. The dollar weakness, high oil prices, inflation fears of the people and the tense political situation in northern Iraq are considered to be the main driver for the gold price rise in recent weeks.

Shortly before the Indian Divali festival is also the jewelry demand increased, it was on the market''added the requirement of exchange-traded gold funds, which are sometimes sold for each share of physical goods in the safe must''said Barbara Lambrecht, precious metals analyst Commerzbank. To absorb all of the largest of these Exchange Traded Funds with names Street tracks nearly 20 million ounces, converted 620 tons, which represents nearly one quarter of annual mine production.

A similar phenomenon is at the silver market, which is why the silver price in the amount soared. So on Tuesday cost silver occasionally, more than $ 16 per oz, as much as the past 27 years. Platinum and palladium were also carried. Platinum was at a record level of $ 1484 per oz, palladium at the top at $ 382.

Also In 1980 the gold rally is not about recalls Hagen. ''Inflation was very high and the price of oil too. In addition, Christmas 1979, the Russians were in Afghanistan. There was fear that they would move up in the oil-producing countries Iraq, Iran, Kuwait. The purchase of oil for the West seemed in danger.''

Intuitions about an early death of Yugoslav dictator Tito, the multi-ethnic region of the Balkans together, and rumors, the oil-producing countries would think about the future in gold rather than in dollars pay to have done their way, according to Hagen, the gold price upwards treiben.Wie today, went the gold rally was accompanied by rising prices of other precious metals. Hagens Commercial Paper for 21 January a silver price of just $ 50 to $ 950 cost of platinum and palladium to $ 280.

Fast End
As it was felt then? ''I had no time to think about the situation many personal thoughts on it.''Instead, the precious metals dealer telephoned Hagen fingers sore to customers''for physical goods, ie bars and coins''to arrange. ''Frankfurt, London, Zurich''were the main routes,''One ounces Kruger Rand coins and Maple Leaf bullion as well as''the most sought-after products, white Hagen.
And today? As part sits''retired''at the Munich Hagen precious metals dealer Pro Aurum and volunteer help, the customer rush under control. What works best? ''Kruger Rand gold and silver coins and Vienna Philharmonic coins,''said Pro Aurum CEO Mirko Schmidt. ''We have a partial delivery two to eight weeks.''Confirms similar Karlheinz Jockel, director of precious metals trading at Dresdner Bank. ''It's like a car. Who on a particular product is specified, it must wait.''

Caution is still warranted, as history teaches, on 22 January 1980 was the first gold bull market for twenty years past. At the end of January Goldunze still cost the $ 650 until the end of March was the price dropped below $ 500. From 1990 to 2002 was the precious metal is less than $ 400 worth.